Form a prediction-s for 2006 (and beyond)

Even though I’ve been busy moving, I keep running into these 2006 prediction lists. So I thought I’d make my own list of political predictions.

(1) The now-blossoming Abramoff “scandal” will go the way of Plame-gate—that is, nowhere. To be sure, we’ll be subjected to months of over-the-top left-wing hysterics, full with shrill calls for the resignation and/or impeachment of all the usual suspects (Rove, Delay, Bush, etc.). Ariana Huffington will blather about it non-stop and in a manner suggesting that she actually has a clue as to what’s going on.

But suddenly one morning liberals will wake up and come to terms with the fact that there’s no scandal there, and (just like the Plame thing), they will promptly drop it like a hot potato. (Approximately three weeks later, Ariana will drop it as well.) And none of them will provide any comment or explanation for their sudden silence on the subject.

No one in Congress will go to jail in the Abramoff “scandal.”

(2) Similarly, Tom Delay will be fully exonerated. He might be a son-of-a-bitch, but—and to paraphrase the great Barry Goldwater—at least he’s a son-of-a-bitch who’s on my side! Either way, he didn’t break any laws. On those remaining Travis County indictments (assuming they’re not thrown of court beforehand), Delay will be found innocent by a jury of his peers.

(3) Alito will be easily confirmed to the Supreme Court. Some extremist elements within the Democratic Party will try to Bork him, but most of the Party realizes that the socio-politico-media landscape is vastly different than it was in 1987.

That is, with the rise of talk-radio, cable news, and the internet, most liberals realize that they can’t simply stage press conferences and issue press releases claiming that Alito hates women, gays, and enjoys sipping the blood of minority children from jeweled goblets with the expectation that the New York Times and CBS/ABC/NBC will dutifully print the headline “Alito hates women, gays, and enjoys sipping the blood of minority children from jeweled goblets” or that, even if they did, anyone would take their word for it.

After all, it’s a flat world now.

(4) The “flat world” (as Thomas Friedman calls it) will continue to wreak havoc on the left. Unionized firms in various industries will continue to lose market share to technologically and logistically superior non-union firms. In the airline industry, unionized firms United, Delta, and U.S. will continue to teeter on the edge of bankruptcy while Jet Blue, Air Tran, and Southwest prosper. In the grocery industry, unionized Safeway, Giant, and Albertson’s will continue to struggle against non-union Whole Foods and Wal-Mart. Unionized General Motors and Ford will continue to shutter US plants—even while non-union Toyota and Honda continue to open new plants all across the American South.

All of this will continue to take a toll on funding for Democratic politicians.

By the same token, did I mention that the new forms of political communication—talk radio, cable news, and the internet—will continue to erode the power of the New York Times and CBS/ABC/NBC?

(5) This recently revealed NSA spy controversy will—hopefully—result in vigorous Congressional hearings. And just like the 9-11 Commission hearings, various Democratic politicians will make total idiots out of themselves on national television. And the entire ghastly spectacle will help Bush and the Republicans. Tremendously.

The Democrats will not gain seats in either house of Congress in the 2006 mid-terms. [You heard it here first!] They will lose seats in both houses—and mostly as a direct result of the way they are behaving (and the way they will continue to behave for the next year) regarding the secret spy program.

Also, for some strange reason, they keep having funding problems.

If you’ll recall, everyone was predicting that the Dem’s would gain seats in 2002. Opposite happened. If you’ll recall, everyone predicted that the Dem’s would gain seats in 2004. Opposite happened. Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me thrice??

(7) Within the Democratic Party, Feingold will emerge as the rank-and-file favorite and (like Howard Dean) quickly become a media darling. And based almost solely on the premise that everyone under the age of 25 is associated with Moveon.org, we almost certainly will hear a great deal about how good Feingold is with “young people.”

(8) Consequently, before the year is out Hillary will take a reluctant turn to the left, a full year and a half before she’d planned to. And if Hillary goes left too early, it doesn’t bode well for the Dem’s in 2008.

(9) “Brokeback Mountain” will win the Oscar for best picture.

(10) Republicans and Democrats alike will continue to agree that Oliver North is completely insane and that his Sunday evening program War Stories on Fox News is far and away the most unwatchable hour on all of cable news.

(11) If, for some strange reason “Good Night, and Good Luck” wins the Oscar for best picture, Ann Coulter will be inconsolable for months.

(12) By the end of 2006, the US and England will have removed more than one-third of their troops from Iraq (about 60,000 out of 180,000)—with the expectation that they will remove another third by the end of 2008.

By the end of the year, I predict, we’ll start to see more comparisons of Bush to Reagan—more comparisons of Bush’s handling of the war on terror to Reagan’s handling of the global war against the Soviet Union.

And, as with the Reagan administration, in twenty years the left will be acting like they weren’t trying to throw wrench after wrench into Bush’s efforts.